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中东地区现新年第一只黑天鹅,油价上涨或削减OPEC+减产积极性
2020-01-08 00:27  www.sghunter.com

当地时间1月5日晚,伊朗政府发表声明称,伊朗在中止履行伊核协议的第五阶段中,放弃了最后一个限制,即“离心机数量的限制”。

On the evening of january 5 local time, the iranian government issued a statement saying that iran had abandoned the last limit, the \"limit on the number of centrifuges \", in the fifth phase of its suspension of the iranian nuclear deal.

因此,伊朗核计划将不再受到任何限制(包括浓缩能力、浓缩百分比、浓缩物质的数量和研发),并且从现在开始,伊朗核计划将继续按照计划的技术要求进行推进,伊朗与国际原子能机构的合作也将继续进行。

Therefore, Iran's nuclear program will no longer be subject to any restrictions (including enrichment capacity, percentage of enrichment, volume of concentrate and research and development), and from now on, Iran's nuclear program will continue to advance in accordance with the technical requirements of the plan, and its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency will continue.

截至1月6日记者发稿,布伦特原油价格已上涨%至美元/桶,美国WTI原油价格上涨%至美元/桶;内盘原油期货主力一度涨停,上海原油期价涨幅为%。

As of January 6, Brent crude was up% to US $\/ barrel, US WTI crude was up% to US $\/ barrel, and internal futures were trading at one point, with Shanghai crude prices up%.

广发期货发展研究中心原油研究员李承昊告诉《国际金融报》记者,“在油价上修速度过快的背景下,OPEC 一季度减产积极性很有可能被削弱。因此,在未来一段时间内,市场将见证产油国减产与地缘政治局势的抗衡。”

Li Chenghao, a crude oil researcher at the Guangfa Futures Development Research Center, told the International Financial News:\" In the context of rapid oil price repair, OPEC's enthusiasm for cutting production in the first quarter is likely to be weakened. Therefore, for some time to come, the market will see oil-producing countries cut production against the geopolitical situation.

据新华社报道,本月3日,伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队下属“圣城旅”指挥官卡西姆·苏莱曼尼在伊拉克巴格达国际机场外遭美军空袭身亡。

On Wednesday, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Qasim Suleimani was killed by U.S. air strikes outside Iraq's Baghdad International Airport, Xinhua reported.

美国国防部在一份声明中称,苏莱曼尼是此前袭击在伊拉克和地区内的美国外交官和军方人士的幕后主使,他和“圣城旅”造成数百名美国和国际联盟军人死亡、数千人受伤。美国总统特朗普下令实施了此次针对苏莱马尼的袭击任务。

The U.S. Defense Department said in a statement that Suleimani was behind previous attacks on U.S. diplomats and military personnel in Iraq and the region, and that he and the \"Al-Quds Brigade\" killed hundreds of U.S. and international coalition troops and wounded thousands. U.S. President Donald Trump has ordered the attack on Mr. Suleimani.

当地时间1月4日,特朗普在社交媒体“推特”发文回应,如果伊朗袭击美国人和美国资产,美方将打击52个伊朗目标,包括一些“对伊朗和伊朗文化至关重要”的目标。

On january 4, local time, mr. trump responded on social media \"twitter\" that if iran attacks americans and american assets, the u.s. would strike 52 iranian targets, including some that are \"vital to iran and iranian culture \".

专家认为,苏莱马尼是伊朗政坛重要人物,在近期伊拉克局势不断恶化、美国和伊朗关系进一步紧张的背景下,他遭袭身亡将给地区局势投下阴影。

Experts believe he is a prominent figure in iranian politics and that his death would cast a shadow over the region amid recent deterioration in iraq and further tensions between the united states and iran.

据新华社报道,欧盟1月5日发布声明称,欧盟邀请伊朗外交部长穆罕默德·贾瓦德·扎里夫前往比利时布鲁塞尔欧盟总部,磋商中东局势和伊朗核问题全面协议相关事宜。欧盟委员会副主席兼欧盟外交与安全政策高级代表何塞普·博雷利·丰特列斯和扎里夫通话,呼吁伊朗避免中东紧张局势升级。

The EU said in a statement on January 5 that it invited Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif to the EU headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, to discuss the situation in the Middle East and matters related to a comprehensive deal on Iran's nuclear issue. The European Commission's Vice-President and High Representative for the EU's Foreign and Security Policy, Josep Borelli Fontarius, spoke to Zarif and called on Iran to avoid an escalation of tensions in the Middle East.

当时,沙特石油生产能力暂时被削减一半,油价一度飙升8%以上。但几周后,沙特阿美快速恢复生产,油价也随之回落到袭击前水平。

At the time, Saudi oil production capacity was temporarily cut in half, with oil prices soaring by more than 8%. But a few weeks later, Saudi Arabia and the United States quickly resumed production, and oil prices fell back to pre-attack levels.

他表示,此次美方军事袭击损害的是伊朗的核心政治利益,而非经济利益。“因为苏莱曼尼曾多次在中东地区执行军事任务并获得巨大成功,其在国内民望极高。事件后,众多伊朗人民走上街头哀悼苏莱曼尼,并向美国表达抗议”。

He said the US military attack hurt Iran's core political, not economic, interests. "Because Suleimani has carried out numerous military missions and had great success in the Middle East, it has great popularity at home.” After the incident, many Iranians took to the streets to mourn Suleimani and protest to the United States.

“此外,与沙特石油设施遭袭不同的是,本次事件将导致后续报复性军事行动的可能性急剧上升。不过,虽然伊拉克已出现大规模游行示威,但短期内,两伊的实际(原油)供应不会受到太大影响。因此我们可以看到,在资产市场中,美股与美债收益率的承压、能源股的走强以及黄金、原油的共振上行。”

去年末,油价受OPEC减产和风险偏好回升支撑大幅上涨。2019年12月,OPEC 达成进一步减产的共识,同意在今年1月至3月将减产幅度扩大到170万桶/日,沙特还表示自愿额外减产40万桶/日。

Late last year, oil prices were buoyed by OPEC cuts and a pick-up in risk appetite. In December 2019, OPEC reached a consensus to cut further production, agreeing to expand the cut to 1.7 million bpd from January to March this year, and Saudi Arabia said it would voluntarily cut an additional 400,000 bpd.

此外,今年一二季度FPSO(浮式生产储油轮)检修可能导致巴西原油产量增长不及预期,而且挪威与圭亚那油田也已经提前投产。李承昊认为,市场收紧的速度加快,将有利于油价继续上修。

In addition, the overhaul of FPSO in the first and second quarter of this year could lead to less-than-expected growth in Brazil's crude oil production, and the oil fields in Norway and Guyana have already started production ahead of schedule. Li believes that the speed of market tightening will help oil prices continue to repair.

值得注意的是,在原油期价上涨的同时,迪拜、阿曼、塔皮斯、米纳斯、杜里、大庆、胜利等主要现货市场同样在保持强劲上涨态势,基差波动幅度较小。

It is worth noting that, as the price of crude oil rose, dubai, oman, tapis, minas, duri, daqing, victory and other major spot markets are also maintaining a strong upward trend, the margin of volatility is relatively small.

目前,苏莱曼尼的逝世已将美伊危机推至前所未有的高度。展望未来,李承昊认为油价对相关事件的反应将尤其敏感,风险溢价将进一步增强油价的利多驱动。

The death of Suleimani has pushed the US-Iranian crisis to unprecedented heights. Looking ahead, mr lee believes oil prices will be particularly sensitive to events, and that risk premiums will further boost the lid drive.

一般情况下,原油、黄金和股市在中长期的相关性较低,因此,很多投资者借助这一特点来降低投资组合的波动性。而在短期内,如果发生影响全球经济、政治稳定,并且会影响原油供应的事件,黄金及油价就会出现短线交易机会,价格相关性也会增强。

In general, crude oil, gold and stock markets are less relevant in the medium to long term, so many investors use this feature to reduce portfolio volatility. In the short term, if events affect the global economy, political stability, and will affect the supply of crude oil, there will be short-term trading opportunities for gold and oil prices, and price correlation will increase.

在李承昊看来,目前油市的供需并未受到实质性干扰,而油价的迅速抬升大部分是源于市场对局势进一步恶化的担忧,这种情绪在短期内不大可能完全消散。

In mr li's view, supply and demand in the oil market are not substantially disrupted, and the rapid rise in oil prices is largely due to concerns about further deterioration, which is unlikely to dissipate entirely in the short term.

“在油价上修速度过快的背景下,OPEC 一季度减产积极性很有可能被削弱。因此,在未来一段时间内,市场将见证产油国减产与地缘政治局势的抗衡。”李承昊说。

Against the backdrop of rapid oil price repairs, OPEC's first-quarter production cuts are likely to be dented. Therefore, for some time to come, the market will see oil-producing countries cut production against the geopolitical situation. said Li Chenghao.