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特斯拉入華一年當吸大麻的馬斯克尬起了舞經觀汽車
2020-01-11 18:12  www.sghunter.com

摘要:一年零四个月后的2020年1月7日,马斯克搭乘私人飞机专程赶往中国,参加特斯拉上海临港工厂的Model3交付仪式,他扭动着胖壮却灵活的身体跳起了脱衣舞,笑得像一个300斤的孩子。

Absrtact: a year and four months later, on January 7,2020, Musk took a private jet to China to attend the Model 3 delivery ceremony at Tesla's Shanghai Lingang factory, where he wriggled his fat but flexible body and jumped a striptease, laughing like a 300-pound child.

2018年9月6日,“硅谷钢铁侠”马斯克公然在直播里配着威士忌吸大麻,不羁的神态看似潇洒但失意难掩。彼时,特斯拉正陷于股债受挫、高层震荡的低迷期,马斯克时常为此焦虑到失眠。第二天,特斯拉股价低开逾7%,盘中跌破253美元,逾10%的跌幅创下当时近两年的下跌记录。

On September 6,2018,\" Silicon Valley Iron Man \"Musk openly sported whiskey with a marijuana-smoking, uninhibited look that seemed chic but frustrated. At the time, tesla was in the doldrums of stock-debt setbacks and high-level shocks that mr musk often fretted about. The following day, tesla's shares opened more than 7% lower than $253 in intraday trading, and more than 10% fell to a nearly two-year record.

一年零四个月后的2020年1月7日,马斯克搭乘私人飞机专程赶往中国,参加特斯拉上海临港工厂的Model3交付仪式,他扭动着胖壮却灵活的身体跳起了脱衣舞,笑得像一个300斤的孩子。不同的是,第二天特斯拉收盘股价暴涨%至492美元,刷新收盘历史高位。

A year and four months later, on January 7,2020, Musk flew on a private jet to China for the Model 3 delivery at Tesla's Shanghai Port Factory, where he wriggled his fat but flexible body and jumped on a strip, laughing like a 300-pound kid. The difference is that the next day Tesla's closing share price jumped by% to $492, refreshing its all-time high.

从失意吸大麻到兴奋热舞,这一年多的时间里,马斯克还经历了特斯拉股价近三年来的至暗时刻。2019年6月28日,特斯拉股价跌至177美元,为近三年来最低。不过,受利于第三季度的销量和财报表现,特斯拉如今正处于自2003年成立以来最好的光景。1月8日,其午盘的市值高达882亿美元,甚至超过了通用和福特的市值总和。

For more than a year, Musk has also experienced the darkest moments of Tesla's stock price for nearly three years, from failed marijuana-smoking to excited dances. Tesla shares fell to $177 on June 28,2019, the lowest in nearly three years. However, Tesla is now in its best shape since its inception in 2003, aided by third-quarter sales and earnings performance. On january 8th it had a market capitalisation of $88.2 billion, or even more than gm and ford combined.

根据特斯拉财报,其第三季度全球交付量达到万辆,净利润亿美元。2019年第四季度,特斯拉销量超过万辆,创下历史新高;全年累计销量达万辆,同比增长50%,超额完成既定的36万辆年销目标。这其中,中国已经成为特斯拉第二大市场。

According to Tesla's report, its third-quarter global delivery reached 10,000 vehicles, with a net profit of $100 million. Tesla sold more than 10,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2019, hitting a record high; the year's cumulative sales reached 10,000, up 50 percent year-on-year, exceeding its set annual sales target of 360,000. Among them, China has become Tesla's second largest market.

但相比之下,特斯拉在华投产画下的大饼,或许更能增强资本市场的信心。2019年1月7日,特斯拉上海超级工厂正式破土动工,整整一年后的1月7日,马斯克就能亲自将首批车型交付至用户手中,这刷新了特斯拉有史以来的投产速度。与此同时,马斯克还正式宣布特斯拉第二款国产车型ModelY国产项目正式启动,官网显示最快将于2021年开始生产。

But Tesla's big pies in China, by contrast, may be more likely to boost confidence in capital markets. On January 7,2019, Tesla's Shanghai superplant officially broke ground, and a full year later on January 7, Musk was able to deliver the first models to users in person, refreshing Tesla's all-time production speed. Meanwhile, Musk has officially announced the launch of Tesla's second home-made Model Y home-made project, with the official website showing it will start production as soon as 2021.

“中国将成为Model3最大的市场”、“ModelY的销量很可能超过特斯拉所有其他车型的总和”,特斯拉对外传递的这些信息,勾勒出一幅中国大街小巷跑满了“T”字LOGO汽车的画面,“未来特斯拉将成为街车。”一位特斯拉销售顾问告诉记者。

\"China will be the biggest market for the Model 3,\" and\" Model Y is likely to sell more than Tesla's all other models combined,\" the message delivered by Tesla to the outside world outlined a picture of a Chinese street full of \"T\" logo cars,\" in the future Tesla will become a streetcar.\" A Tesla sales consultant told reporters.

根据特斯拉的计划,2021年国产Model3和ModelY年产能合计将达25万辆。对于2021年将投产的国产ModelY,有机构预测其稳态销量将超过40万辆。

According to Tesla's plan, the total annual capacity of the domestic Model 3 and Model Y in 2021 will be 250,000. For the home-made Model Y, which will start production in 2021, some agencies predict its steady-state sales will exceed 400,000.

国内汽车产业用“鲶鱼”来形容国产的特斯拉,尽管产品还未大批量交付,但特斯拉概念股已经一路飙升了很久。在特斯拉百余家供应商中,中国企业占据了半壁江山,他们将跟随着特斯拉的成长而成长,最终制造成本越来越低,给正处于寒冬的中国新能源汽车产业供暖。但也有人警惕,特斯拉这条“鲶鱼”或将变成“鲨鱼”,团灭本土车企。

The domestic auto industry has used \"catfish\" to describe home-made Teslas, which have soared for a long time, although products have not yet been delivered in large quantities. Of the more than 100 tesla suppliers, chinese companies are taking up half of it, and they will follow tesla's growth and eventually become less expensive to build, heating china's new-energy auto industry in the winter. But others are wary that tesla's \"catfish\" may turn into a \"shark\" to destroy local car companies.

在1月7日的活动现场,马斯克虽然特立独行地跳起了脱衣舞,但他也干了一件“难以免俗”的事——发表感谢。像很多其他车企高层一样,马斯克表示“非常感激中国政府和消费者对特斯拉的大力支持”。但不同的是,其他车企高层的感谢被看做“俗套”,马斯克的感谢却成为了媒体报道的关键词。

At the event's scene on January 7, Musk, while taking a maverick striptease, also did a \"hard-to-get\" job - giving thanks. Like many other top auto makers, Mr Musk said he was \"very grateful to the Chinese government and consumers for their strong support for Tesla \". But unlike other top auto makers, whose thanks are seen as \"tacky \", Musk's have become a key word for media coverage.

早在2008年,马斯克就跟中国科技部部长万钢相遇,这也是他第一次和中国打交道。在特斯拉仍陷盈利困境、急于扩张市场之时,马斯克2014年前来和中国政府商讨国产大计,提出了独资建厂,但没有成功。尽管如此,马斯克如今能够开心地在中国跳起脱衣舞,确实要感谢中国政府,不仅是政策的放开,还有产业链基础、资金支持以及更低的劳动力成本等。

Back in 2008, Mr Musk met with China's science and technology minister, Wan Gang, for the first time. At a time when tesla is still struggling for profits and eager to expand the market, mr maske came to beijing in 2014 to discuss a home-made plan to build a wholly-owned factory without success. Nonetheless, Mr Musk is happy to be able to take a strip in China today, thanks to the government, not only for its policy liberalization, but also for its industrial chain base, financial support, and lower labor costs.

2018年6月28日,发改委和商务部发布了《外商投资准入特别管理措施(负面清单)(2018版)》,在原有规定“汽车整车制造的中方股比不低于50%”的基础上,增加了“除专用车、新能源车外”。这一文件使得马斯克可以实现在华独资建厂的野心,随即当年7月份特斯拉和上海签署了纯电动车项目投资协议,甚至截胡了蔚来汽车在上海建厂的计划。

on june 28,2018, the development and reform commission and the ministry of commerce issued the special management measures for foreign investment access (negative list)(2018 edition), adding \"except special vehicles, new energy vehicles\" on the basis of the original regulation \"the ratio of chinese shares in automobile manufacturing is not less than 50%\". The document, which allowed mr maske to build a wholly-owned factory in china, followed the signing of an investment agreement between tesla and shanghai on a purely electric vehicle project in july that year, even cutting off plans for mr wei to build a factory in shanghai.

中国的资本市场也十分慷慨。2019年特斯拉先后获得了多家中国银行的贷款,累计金额高达185亿元,甚至超过此前其上海工厂的预估建设成本。上海不仅在特斯拉建厂土地上给予优惠,在员工配套住房上也提供了支持,据了解工厂附近两居室的住房租金仅需1000多元。

China's capital markets are also generous. In 2019, Tesla received loans from a number of Chinese banks, accumulating as much as $18.5 billion, even more than the estimated construction costs of its previous Shanghai plant. Shanghai not only gives preferential treatment on the land of the Tesla factory, but also provides support on the staff supporting housing, and it is understood that the rent for the two-bedroom house near the factory is only more than 1000 yuan.

不仅如此,这家硅谷“网红”企业也在人才招聘市场掀起一阵风浪。2018年8月2日,“特斯拉招聘”微信公众号首次发布临港工厂招聘信息,阅读量达万,此后至今累计发布了近60条招聘相关推送。全国各大城市的相关人才趋之若鹜,特斯拉HR说一年收到的简历多达70万份,以致于难以统计“简历通过率”这种数字。

Not only that, the silicon valley \"network red\" enterprise in the talent recruitment market has also set off a wave. On August 2,2018, the \"Tesla recruitment\" WeChat public number first released the recruitment information of the port factory, the reading amount reached Wan, and since then, nearly 60 recruitment related push has been released. With talent flocking to major cities across the country, tesla hr says it has received as many as 700,000 resumes a year, making it difficult to count the \"pass rate \".

国内的供应商也期盼着能与特斯拉合作。WIND数据显示,1月8日特斯拉指数收盘涨幅达%,自12月以来,指数累计涨幅已经高达35%,远超同期其他板块。据相关机构统计,特斯拉产业链设计动力电池总成、电驱系统、高压系统等直接、间接供应商累计130余家,其中中国企业占比超过了一半。

Domestic suppliers are also looking forward to working with Tesla. The Tesla index closed up% on January 8 and has risen as much as 35% since December, far more than the rest of the period, according to WIND data. According to the statistics of relevant institutions, Tesla industry chain design power battery assembly, electric drive system, high voltage system and other direct and indirect suppliers accumulated more than 130, of which more than half of the Chinese enterprises.

随着特斯拉的国产加速,这些企业无论是主营业务订单还是资本市场机遇都将随之提升。根据申万宏源证券测算,假设2021年特斯拉实现30万辆产量,单车价值30万元,预计电池、材料、高压直流继电器、热管理系统等环节有望带来400亿元以上市场空间。

As tesla's domestic production accelerates, both its main business orders and capital market opportunities will rise. According to Shen Wan Hongyuan Securities, assuming Tesla achieves 300,000 production in 2021, the bicycle is worth 300,000 yuan, and it is expected that batteries, materials, high voltage DC relays, heat management systems and other links are expected to bring more than 40 billion yuan of market space.

近日,主要为特斯拉提供驱动单元壳体、散热器壳体等零部件的旭升股份称,截至目前特斯拉为其第一大客户,截至2019年上半年,公司对特斯拉销售收入占主营业务收入比例为%。

Recently, Xusheng shares, which mainly provide Tesla with parts such as drive unit housing, radiator housing and so on, said that so far Tesla is its first major customer, and as of the first half of 2019, the company's sales revenue to Tesla accounted for% of the main business revenue.

在特斯拉狂欢之时,国内新能源汽车市场却陷入了寒冬。2019年7月以来,新能源汽车结束了前几年的高增速发展,开始连续下跌。

At a time of tesla's revelry, the domestic market for new-energy cars has plunged into winter. Since July 2019, new energy vehicles have ended their previous years of high growth growth and started falling in succession.

在特斯拉开启批量交付的第二天,1月8日,比亚迪公布其2019年总销量为万辆,其中新能源汽车销量为万辆,同比下降%,连续几年的全球新能源汽车销量冠军的帽子,首次被特斯拉夺走。此外,北汽新能源2019年销量为万辆,同比下滑%。

On January 8, the day after Tesla opened its bulk delivery, BYD reported its 2019 total sales of 10,000 vehicles, of which new energy vehicles sold 10,000, down% year-on-year, and the hat of the global new energy car sales champion for several years was first taken away by Tesla. In addition, BAIC's new energy sales in 2019 were 10,000, down% from a year earlier.

业内将新能源汽车销量连续的下跌归因为2019年补贴的进一步退坡。一方面,购车需求在上半年补贴退坡前提前释放;另一方面,前几年基于补贴出现的B端市场从疯狂开始变得理性。长城证券预测,在之前市场销售方向中,2B端的单位购买量较高,但2C端的私人购买量实际在逐渐增长,消费者对电动汽车的认同感在增强。

The industry blamed a continuing decline in new-energy car sales on a further fall in subsidies in 2019. On the one hand, car-buying demand was released early before the first half of the subsidy retreat; on the other hand, the B-terminal market, which emerged on the basis of subsidies in previous years, began to become rational from madness. Great Wall Securities predicts that in the previous market sales direction, the unit purchase quantity of 2B end is higher, but the private purchase quantity of 2C end is actually increasing gradually, and the consumer's identity to electric vehicle is increasing.

新能源汽车销量呈大规模增长,很重要的原因是成本仍然难以与传统燃油车匹敌,此外还包括续航能力、充电设施、安全隐患等问题。特斯拉的国产被认为是中国汽车寒冬里的一把火,多家研究机构认为特斯拉的国产是标志性事件,结合其他车企新能源汽车平台化的推进,2020年新能源汽车市场将迎来拐点。

The big increase in sales of new-energy vehicles is due to the fact that costs remain difficult to match with traditional fuel vehicles, as well as problems such as endurance, charging facilities and safety risks. Tesla's domestic is regarded as a fire in the cold winter of Chinese cars, and several research institutions believe that Tesla's domestic is a landmark event, combined with the promotion of the platform of new energy vehicles in other car companies, the market for new energy vehicles in 2020 will usher in an inflection point.

一方面,特斯拉将增强消费者对于电动车的认同感;另一方面,供应链规模化将降低整个产业链的成本。东吴证券表示,特斯拉产业链机会将有望复制苹果的黄金十年。这也被认为是中国政府积极引入特斯拉的根本目的。目前特斯拉Model3的国产化率为30%,马斯克预计年底将达到100%。

on the one hand, tesla will enhance consumer recognition of electric vehicles; on the other hand, the supply chain scale will reduce the cost of the entire industrial chain. Soochow Securities said Tesla industry chain opportunities would be expected to replicate Apple's golden decade. It is also seen as the fundamental purpose of the Chinese government's active introduction of Tesla. At present, Tesla Model 3 has a 30% localization rate, and Musk expects to reach 100% by the end of the year.

不过,在“养肥”特斯拉之后,中国车企是否会被反咬一口?得益于在上海超级工厂设计中获得的经验和效率,特斯拉预计单位生产能力的资本支出将比当前在美国的Model3生产系统低约50%。这也促成了特斯拉以更低的产品价格,进入中国市场甚至全球市场,抢食竞品车型的市场份额。

However, after the \"fat\" Tesla, the Chinese car companies will be bitten back? Thanks to the experience and efficiency gained in the design of the Shanghai superplant, Tesla expects that the capital expenditure per unit of production capacity will be about 50 percent lower than the current Model 3 production system in the United States. It also led Tesla to enter the Chinese market and even the global market with lower product prices to grab market share of competing models.

马斯克在1月7日的活动现场表示,未来还将在中国本土进行电动车的设计。特斯拉国产最直接冲击的,将是新造车企业。早在特斯拉国产前,“对标特斯拉”就成为他们的宣传口号。蔚来甚至公开在朋友圈将其ES6、ES8以及EC6与特斯拉Model3、ModelX和ModelY进行对比。此外,国产Model3还将与ABB等豪华品牌电动车以及比亚迪、吉利等本土车企的高端品牌电动车型直接竞争。

Mr Musk said at the event on January 7 that electric vehicles would be designed in China in the future. Tesla homemade the most direct impact, will be the new car manufacturers. Long before tesla made its home,\" to mark tesla \"became their propaganda slogan. Wei even publicly compared its ES6, ES8, and EC6 to Tesla Model 3, Model X, and Model Y in the circle of friends. In addition, the domestic Model 3 will compete directly with luxury brands such as ABB, as well as high-end brand electric models from local car companies such as BYD and Geely.

在2019年广州车展上,一位尚未实现产品批量交付的新造车企业员工,坐在特斯拉展台上一辆国产Model3的副驾驶位上,反复打量着内饰,同时神情凝重。“肯定会感受到压力的。”对于特斯拉的国产,他说。而在隔壁的威马新车发布会上,威马创始人、董事长、CEO沈晖侃侃而谈,“特斯拉不可怕啊,它是网红嘛,把市场做大了是好事啊。”

At the 2019 Guangzhou Motor Show, a new car maker employee who has yet to achieve bulk delivery of the product sat in the co-pilot seat of a domestic Model 3 on the Tesla booth, repeatedly looking at the interior while looking stony. \"You'll definitely feel the pressure. for tesla home-made, he said. At the launch of his new car next door, shen hui, weima's founder, chairman and ceo, said,\" tesla isn't terrible, it's popular, and it's good to make the market bigger.\"

“特斯拉进入中国市场会有压力的,我从用户的角度也能看出它的压力也不小。”上汽乘用车公司副总经理俞经民表示。目前国产Model3刚开启交付,产品品质尚无法评测。但仅从管理模式来看,特斯拉确实面临着压力。有特斯拉中国员工吐槽称难以忍受朝令夕改和高强度的工作方式,并用“围城”来形容它。

\"Tesla will be under pressure to enter the Chinese market, and I can see from the user's point of view that it is not much pressure. SAIC passenger car company deputy general manager Yu Jingmin said. At present, domestic Model 3 has just begun delivery, product quality cannot be measured. But only from the management model, Tesla does face pressure. There are Tesla employees in China who complain that they can't stand changing and working with high intensity and describe it as a \"siege \".

朝令夕改也体现在与用户直接对接业务上。1月3日,特斯拉突然下调国产Model3价格,便引发了老车主维权抗议,销售自称也不知道价格会调整。事实上,特斯拉车型价格过往调整过7次以上,此外,特斯拉的免费充电政策也反复启停。业内认为,在企业管理文化上,特斯拉也还有很多需要入乡随俗之处。

“我们不看好特斯拉的长期前景,尤其是随着时间的推移,我们认为特斯拉会越来越像传统的汽车制造商。”摩根士丹利的分析师乔纳斯在12月份指出,特斯拉目前的股价对一家汽车制造商来说过高了。此前,该机构预称特斯拉将无法占领中国电动汽车市场很大的份额,但较低的生产成本将帮助其实现盈利。

\"We don't look at Tesla's long-term prospects, especially as time goes on, we think Tesla will become more and more like a traditional carmaker.\" Morgan Stanley analyst Jonas noted in December that Tesla's current share price was too high for a carmaker. Earlier, the agency pre-stated that Tesla would not be able to capture a large share of China's electric car market, but that lower production costs would help make profits.

“您是我遇到的看国产Model3的消费者中,第二个问到三电情况的。”一位特斯拉的销售顾问告诉记者,相比购买特斯拉其他车型的消费者,国产Model3的消费者更加注重价格。但随着特斯拉国产车型的正式上市和价格的拉低,当中国车主的注意力回归到车辆性价比和品质本身时,特斯拉的科技光环能否依然为其营造瑕不掩瑜的宽容空间?

\"You're the second consumer I've met to see a home-made Model 3. A Tesla sales consultant told reporters that consumers of the domestic Model 3 were more price-conscious than those who bought other Tesla models. But with the official listing of Tesla's domestic models and the pull down of prices, when the attention of Chinese car owners returns to the cost-effective and quality of the vehicle itself, can Tesla's technology aura still create a tolerant space for it not to hide its flaws?