Dear Opposition supporters,
I hate to burst your bubble but I just want to let you know that the PAP leadership is supremely confident it will do well in this election. In fact, probably better than GE2011 with _60% of votes.
Here are some reasons why :
1) The mood of the electorate is generally good. Yes, segments of the population may still be sour – like some PMETs in their 40s/50s are jobless, super-idealistic youngsters who blindly believe in so-called “democracy” – but these are in the minority. And while you guys seem to think that jobless PMETs in their 40s/50s are a big deal, this problem is way overblown. Many many more PMETs in this age group are employed than unemployed.
People look around them and see the mess that Malaysia is now in with IMDB and how the Ringgit has plunged. In their hearts, they are grateful that they are living in Singapore and earning S$. Many Singaporeans also see how China is slowing down, how Aussie$ has plunged too, and in their hearts they see Sgp as the safe oasis in turbulent times. Singaporeans are not stupid — they compare. And coming in on the eve of Jubilee SG50 celebration, the mood of gratitude remains strong.
As long as Singaporeans look backward to the past and are grateful, the PAP will do well. GE2011 was about looking to the future and seeing how prospects have dimmed and PAP did not do well. The Govt had successfully shifted the narrative to look at the past and this has sweetened the ground for the election.
2) There will be a huge, huge, huge, huge swing in Seniors votes towards the PAP. Many many many of them are happy with the Pioneer package. Unless you are in touch with the ground, you have no idea how successful this Pioneer Package has been as a vote getter.
3) LKY factor — Did you see how teary eyed the audience was when they listened to LKY’s proclaimation of independence on 9-Aug morning? Did you see how teary eyed the audience was during the tribute to LKY during NDP? This will continue to be a major emotional factor in this coming election, particularly with the seniors.
4) Tanjong Pagar GRC — In GE2011, TP GRC was a walkover. So it was not included in the statistics that show PAP’s support to be 60%. In GE2015, TP GRC will be contested. And the emotional pull from LKY will be super-strong here. Many residents there will be reminded that they are betraying their conscience if they dare forsake LKY’s ward so soon after this death. I predict that this GRC alone will pull in _70% of votes for the PAP. Had this been included in GE2011′s results — even if the share of votes remain unchanged in the other constituencies — PAP’s pro-forma share of votes would have been 62-63%.
5) Lui Tuck Yew’s hara-kiri had arguably removed one of the single biggest gripe from voters in this election, ie. frequent MRT breakdowns. The day after his announcement, sentiments seem to have swung the other way, with many people feeling that he’s being unfairly blamed. So even if the MRT continues to breakdown in the next few weeks, its no longer a potent election factor.
6) Workers Party is set for a major surprise this election. Forget about winning Sengkang West SMC, MacPherson SMC, Marine Parade GRC or even East Coast GRC. I’m not even sure if they can retain Punggol East SMC. Charles Chong used to serve in that area. The main reason why Ah Lian won in the last by-election was because of the poor performance of PAP’s rookie “Son of Punggol” candidate, who shoot the wrong things from his mouth. Now there’s a seasoned veteran there.
In addition, months of harping about AHPETC, AHPETC and the failure to have its accounts pass audit will take a toll on WP’s support. Unlike GE2011 or PE BE, WP can no longer claim “it knows how to manage a Town Council”. If you know how to manage, how come you can’t pass an audit?
Yes, you guys can blaim AIM, PAP playing dirty etc. But the vast majority of voters do not know the details, all the blow by blow details of AIM, sinking fund etc etc. PAP has attacked this issue for so long that there is now a lingering, nagging suspicion in voters mind. And that is good enough.
LTK is smart. He senses that this election cycle will be more difficult than GE2011. That’s why he’s staying put in Aljunied GRC to ensure that at least, he defends his fortress there.
7) All the other opposition parties remain weak. SDA is a joke – Desmond can’t even speak properly and his party got thrashed until nothing in the Punggol BE. DPM TCH’s Pasir Ris will score almost 70% support in the GE. Reform Party is also another joke. Voters do not take KJ seriously – he can’t even speak English without discarding his England accent, he can’t even say the National Pledge — how can he connect with voters? And Roy Ngerng is also a joke, ever since he harrassed the autistic children. AMK GRC and other other GRCs where RP is contesting will score _65% PAP votes, easily. NSP is also a joke. And similarly, many voters remain wary of Chee Soon Juan. And as for SPP, my goodness — you guys think that having a bent-back, wheelchair bound CST is a major asset but to most other voters, it is a major turn-off. It reflects the fact that this party is so yesterday and cannot move beyond one single individual.
Yes, these parties will get the usual 30% hard-core opposition support but that’s about it. In other words, once WP is neutralized, PAP is set to score a landslide.
You guys are reading pro-opposition websites like TRE, TOC, Allsgstuff etc and are living in your own bubble. You confidently believe that there’s a chance of denying PAP 2/3rd majority this GE or even a change of govt. How naive!!
You better be mentally prepared to be slapped by the PAP this coming GE. And do a lot of soul searching about how PAP had successfully bounced back from GE2011 and PE BE thrashing in 2013 to regain the trust of the electorate.
And too bad — if PAP does increase its share of votes (never mind if it fails to win back Hougang or Aljunied) — PAP will be able to say that they have got a strong mandate from the people to continue with their existing policies and move forth towards a 6.9m population, etc etc.